Brent crude, the international crude oil price benchmark, rose slightly on Thursday.PokermachinesforsaleDemand expectations for the world's two largest consumers of crude oil were boosted by a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories and an increase in Chinese imports last month. But oil prices have fallen sharply from recent highs, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures falling the most in three months last week. Brent crude also fell monthly in April. Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo, said in a report on Wednesday that crude oil futures prices are now close to a two-month low due to increased hedge fund selling contracts, but could eventually rebound to around $90.
Hansen added in the report that while the armed conflict in the Middle East continues, the risk of global crude oil supply disruptions is getting closer to zero, especially as the international community is working, despite the difficulties, to find a conflict cease-fire. On Thursday's trading day, the trading price of WTI crude oil rose as high as 0. 5%.Pokermachinesforsale.7% to $79.55 a barrel, while Brent crude rose as much as 0.6% to $84.11 a barrel.
"as hedge funds pulled out of long positions in bullish crude oil, driven by strong momentum, and commodity traders who misjudged trends sought new technical selling points that fell further after falling below their 200-day moving average last week, the current trend of oil price collapse is intensifying." The Saxo Bank report shows.
At the same time, the European-based financial institution also pointed out that if Brent crude fails to hold the key price of $90, which Saxo Bank believes will be the preferred profit price area for most OPEC + oil-producing countries, then the prospect that long-term crude oil production cuts will further erode OPEC's market share in crude oil is becoming a reality.
The positive news is that official US government data show a decline in US crude oil inventories, indicating tight supply. Us crude inventories fell by about 1.361 million barrels last week due to increased refinery activity, reversing a huge increase of 7.265 million barrels in the previous period, according to EIA. With clear signs of weakness in the US non-farm job market, rising expectations among traders that the Fed will cut interest rates in the second half of the year have also boosted the outlook for energy demand.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a big Wall Street firm, said on Thursday that they no longer expect OPEC + to partially reverse recent voluntary production cuts in June. Analysts at Goldman Sachs also believe that in most cases, Brent crude prices are likely to fluctuate in the $75-$90 range for a long time, and oil prices are likely to rise after the summer driving season. and predicts that the average price may be just $82 a barrel in 2025. Saxo Bank predicts that Brent crude prices are likely to return to levels close to $90 a barrel in the future.
UBS, the international bank, recently raised its crude oil price forecast by $5 a barrel, predicting that Brent crude, the international crude benchmark, will fluctuate between $85 and $95 a barrel in the coming months, while WTI crude, the North American crude benchmark, is expected to range between $80 and $90. In the report, UBS also raised its forecast for global demand growth this year and lowered its crude oil production forecast for OPEC + countries in the second quarter of 2024.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley, a Wall Street giant, recently raised their forecast for Brent crude prices by $4.50 a barrel to $92 in the second quarter and $4 to $94 a barrel in the third quarter. Bank of America's global research team predicts that the average price of Brent and WTI crude this year will be $86 and $81, respectively, peaking around $95 a barrel in the summer. As of press time, Brent crude futures hovered around $83.60, up as much as 10% so far this year.